Retrospective systems thinking
My wife and I made a salad together. It was delicious: the crushed red pepper spiced up our homemade salad dressing.
I'm not a good cook (yet), so my initial thought was, "we used red pepper, the meal tasted great, so I'll use red pepper flakes in the future." But using that same ingredient won't guarantee another positive outcome.
Systems thinking helps you see how individual parts affect the whole. It's a strategy for analyzing not only how an outcome was achieved, but also why.
When I asked myself, "why did the red pepper make the salad dressing taste good?" it put me on a path to understanding the fundamentals of cooking: how salt, fat, acid, and heat work together. Thus, I'm more likely to make another good meal. Over time, systems thinking compounds your knowledge.
And as the stakes get higher, systems thinking becomes more valuable.
When a marketing campaign delivers a positive result, perhaps it was because the chosen call-to-action was strong. Or, maybe it was sheer luck. Before executing a similar campaign again, it can be valuable to reflect on the previous decision-making process. For example, one could ask meta-level questions like:
- What was the process we used to arrive at the decision?
- Who was involved in the process and what data did they have?
- What other variables could have impacted the outcome?
Systems thinking can improve future decision-making.
Mental models guide us toward the best answers. Thinking in systems—retrospectively—can be an effective way to optimize our arsenal of mental models. By understanding how different "ingredients" in a system impacted an outcome in the past, we can recognize patterns and be less wrong in the future.
Retrospective systems thinking can make you a winner—even when you fail.
Have a reflective week,
Anthony
Work Smart, Lead Better
Ideas on strategy, collaboration, mental fitness.
Poker reminds me of the sunk cost fallacy. It can be a tough decision to fold your cards after making a big bet. On the one hand, you don't want to lose the money you already put into the pot. On the other, you want to save your resources to continue playing the game. Like a poker bet, a sunk cost is a price that has already been paid and should not control future actions. Experienced leaders stay aware of the sunk cost fallacy. When Steve Jobs returned to Apple, he focused the company's...
I've always admired the effortlessness of the expert pianist. As their hands glide fluidly from side to side, each finger knows when to press a black or white key. It appears that the arms, hands, and fingers are independently and automatically acting on their own accord—yet they are totally in sync. To the spectator, the performance seems effortless. But it is the thousands of hours of repetition and practice that enable experts to achieve unconscious competence, the point where skill...
How do you change someone's mind? It's not easy. I'd argue it's not even possible. That's right, you don't change someone's mind. Only they can change their mind. I remember a meeting early in my consulting career where I was so prepared with stats and evidence and social proof that I thought I had "won" the decision before the conversation finished. Yet, in the end I didn't change their mind. It was as if each fact I provided had increased their skepticism and made them further dig into...